Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort Modeling and Prediction - BAMP

The software package BAMP provides a method of analyzing incidence or mortality data on the Lexis diagram, using a Bayesian version of an age-period-cohort model. A hierarchical model is assumed with a binomial model in the first-stage. As smoothing priors for the age, period and cohort parameters random walks of first and second order, with and without an additional unstructured component are available. Unstructured heterogeneity can also be included in the model. In order to evaluate the model fit, posterior deviance, DIC and predictive deviances are computed. By projecting the random walk prior into the future, future death rates can be predicted.

GROWTH AND SURVIVAL IN WHEAT FARMING: THE IMPACT OF LAND EXPANSION AND BORROWING RESTRAINTS

Simulation is used to examine impacts of land expansion strategies and self-imposed borrowing limits upon growth and survival odds of a dryland wheat farm over a 15-year period. Compared to share-rent expansion, purchasing land shows only marginally great growth at best, with substantially higher odds of firm failure. A tradeoff of enhanced survival at the expense of reduced growth results from more conservative borrowing for land. The marginal value of liquidity (for assisting survival) is relatively high at lower levels of credit reserves.Agricultural Finance, Crop Production/Industries, Land Economics/Use,

COMPARISON OF LIVESTOCK PRICE FORECASTING USING SIMPLE TECHNIQUES, FORWARD PRICING AND OUTLOOK INFORMATION

Demand and Price Analysis,

The influence of temperature dynamics and dynamic finite ion Larmor radius effects on seeded high amplitude plasma blobs

Thermal effects on the perpendicular convection of seeded pressure blobs in the scrape-off layer of magnetised fusion plasmas are investigated. Our numerical study is based on a four field full-F gyrofluid model, which entails the consistent description of high fluctuation amplitudes and dynamic finite Larmor radius effects. We find that the maximal radial blob velocity increases with the square root of the initial pressure perturbation and that a finite Larmor radius contributes to highly compact blob structures that propagate in the poloidal direction. An extensive parameter study reveals that a smooth transition to this compact blob regime occurs when the finite Larmor radius effect strength, defined by the ratio of the magnetic field aligned component of the ion diamagnetic to the $\vec{E}\times\vec{B}$ vorticity, exceeds unity. The maximal radial blob velocities agree excellently with the inertial velocity scaling law over more than an order of magnitude. We show that the finite Larmor radius effect strength affects the poloidal and total particle transport and present an empirical scaling law for the poloidal and total blob velocities. Distinctions to the blob behaviour in the isothermal limit with constant finite Larmor radius effects are highlighted

The invisible power of fairness. How machine learning shapes democracy

Many machine learning systems make extensive use of large amounts of data regarding human behaviors. Several researchers have found various discriminatory practices related to the use of human-related machine learning systems, for example in the field of criminal justice, credit scoring and advertising. Fair machine learning is therefore emerging as a new field of study to mitigate biases that are inadvertently incorporated into algorithms. Data scientists and computer engineers are making various efforts to provide definitions of fairness. In this paper, we provide an overview of the most widespread definitions of fairness in the field of machine learning, arguing that the ideas highlighting each formalization are closely related to different ideas of justice and to different interpretations of democracy embedded in our culture. This work intends to analyze the definitions of fairness that have been proposed to date to interpret the underlying criteria and to relate them to different ideas of democracy.Comment: 12 pages, 1 figure, preprint version, submitted to The 32nd Canadian Conference on Artificial Intelligence that will take place in Kingston, Ontario, May 28 to May 31, 201

Merging GW with DMFT and non-local correlations beyond

We review recent developments in electronic structure calculations that go beyond state-of-the-art methods such as density functional theory (DFT) and dynamical mean field theory (DMFT). Specifically, we discuss the following methods: GW as implemented in the Vienna {\it ab initio} simulation package (VASP) with the self energy on the imaginary frequency axis, GW+DMFT, and ab initio dynamical vertex approximation (D$\Gamma$A). The latter includes the physics of GW, DMFT and non-local correlations beyond, and allows for calculating (quantum) critical exponents. We present results obtained by the three methods with a focus on the benchmark material SrVO$_3$.Comment: tutorial review submitted to EPJ-ST (scientific report of research unit FOR 1346); 11 figures 27 page

A SUSTAINABLE HERBICIDE AND GRASS ESTABLISHMENT APPROACH FOR LAND RECLAMATION: A CASE OF RUSSIAN KNAPWEED

Controlling Russian knapweed with an integrated system of herbicide followed by seeding perennial grass is profitable in yielding an 8.7% average rate of return, and repaying the establishment costs in approximately six years. Moreover, the system is sustainable by exploiting plant competition and eliminating herbicide usage in later years.Land Economics/Use,

Three-dimensional carrier-dynamics simulation of terahertz emission from photoconductive switches

A semi-classical Monte Carlo model for studying three-dimensional carrier dynamics in photoconductive switches is presented. The model was used to simulate the process of photoexcitation in GaAs-based photoconductive antennas illuminated with pulses typical of mode-locked Ti:Sapphire lasers. We analyzed the power and frequency bandwidth of THz radiation emitted from these devices as a function of bias voltage, pump pulse duration and pump pulse location. We show that the mechanisms limiting the THz power emitted from photoconductive switches fall into two regimes: when illuminated with short duration (<40 fs) laser pulses the energy distribution of the Gaussian pulses constrains the emitted power, while for long (>40 fs) pulses, screening is the primary power-limiting mechanism. A discussion of the dynamics of bias field screening in the gap region is presented. The emitted terahertz power was found to be enhanced when the exciting laser pulse was in close proximity to the anode of the photoconductive emitter, in agreement with experimental results. We show that this enhancement arises from the electric field distribution within the emitter combined with a difference in the mobilities of electrons and holes.Comment: 7 pages, 7 figure